Imperfect Information in Macroeconomics

The Imperfect Knowledge Imperative in Modern Macroeconomics and Finance Theory

Navigability with Imperfect Information

The article studies navigability of an autonomous agent in a maze where some rooms may be indistinguishable. In a previous work the authors have shown that the properties of navigability in such a setting depend on whether an agent has perfect recall. Navigability by an agent with perfect recall is a transitive relation and without is not transitive. This article introduces a notion of restrict...

The micro- and macroeconomics of information

Reputation and Imperfect Information

A common observation in the informal literature of economics (and elsewhere) is that in multistage “games,” players may seek early in the game to acquire a reputation for being “tough” or “benevolent” or something else. But this phenomenon is not observed in some formal game-theoretic analyses of finite games, such as Selten’s finitely repeated chain-store game or in the finitely repeated priso...

Essays on Imperfect Information

The first essay empirically models of aggregate fluctuations with two basic ingredients: agents form anticipations about the future based on noisy sources of information; these anticipations affect spending and output in the short run. Our objective is to separate fluctuations due to actual changes in fundamentals (news) from those due to temporary errors in the private sector's estimates of th...